class: center, middle, title-slide .title[ # Quantitative methods for population dynamics <br> Introduction ] .author[ ### Olivier Gimenez, Sarah Cubaynes, Aurélien Besnard <br> Lise Viollat, Javi-Fernández-López, Thierry Chambert, Thibaut Couturier, Valentin Lauret, Marwan Naciri ] --- class: middle background-image: url(img/montpellier.png) background-size: cover ??? + Welcome. My name is Olivier Gimenez + I am a scientist working in statistical ecology and population dynamics in particular. + I am based in Montpellier in southern France. + I thought I'd share some a few pictures of what you’re missing. It's a bit cruel I know. + We really wish the workshop would be in Montpellier to show you the city wonders and its surroundings. --- class: center, middle background-image: url(img/zoom-covid.png) background-size: cover ??? + Instead, we'll be spending quality time on Youtube. + It has its advantages, not sure we could have fit you all in our conference room. --- .pull-left[ .title-font[How it all started] <center><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">📢👋 Together with <a href="https://twitter.com/SarahCubaynes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SarahCubaynes</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/abesnardEPHE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@abesnardEPHE</a> we will be giving a 2-day introductory workshop March 21-22 on quantitative methods for population dynamics in R <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/rstats?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#rstats</a> Join us 🥳 It&#39;s online and free of charge 😉 You just need to register <a href="https://t.co/I5sNS5kDOo">https://t.co/I5sNS5kDOo</a> Please RT 😇 <a href="https://t.co/rkw8JWZBJi">pic.twitter.com/rkw8JWZBJi</a></p>&mdash; Olivier Gimenez 🖖 (@oaggimenez) <a href="https://twitter.com/oaggimenez/status/1447543032476225537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 11, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></center> ] ??? + Everything started in October 2021, on Twitter, when advertised for a workshop on quantitative methods for population dynamics. -- .pull-right[ .title-font[Where we're at] .center[  ] ] ??? + The number of responses blew my mind. + And here we're are, a few months later, with near 2600 folks who registered. --- class: center, middle background-size: cover ## Quantitative methods for population dynamics ??? + So why are we here altogether? + This workshop deals with the analysis and modelling of population dynamics. + Quantifying population dynamics is crucial for the conservation and management of animal and plant species. --- ## Population dynamics <img src="img/intro1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ??? + Population dynamics is the study of variation of population size over time. --- ## Processes <img src="img/intro2.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- <img src="img/Page3.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ??? + We will cover the estimation of population density and abundance using capture-recapture, N-mixture and distance sampling models. --- <img src="img/Page2.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ??? + We will cover the estimation of demographic parameters (e.g. survival, dispersal) using capture-recapture models. --- <img src="img/Page1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ??? + We will cover the projection of population using structured and unstructured models. --- ## Credits and inspiration ??? + This workshop does not come from nowhere, and I'd like to spend a minute or two on credits and to thank those who inspired me to organise this event. -- + Past workshops on capture-recapture models with Roger Pradel, Rémi Choquet and Jean-Dominique Lebreton. ??? + We've been running workshops on capture-recapture models in Montpellier for 10-15 years now with my colleagues Roger, Rémi and Jean-Dominique. + I learnt so much from them, I owe them a lot. -- + Past workshop on Population dynamics back in 2007. ??? + We also run a workshop on pop dynamics. -- + Lectures for Master students with Olivier Duriez. ??? + Thanks --- ### The team - lecturers/helpers <!-- Thierry (survie, matrice), Thibaut (effectif), Coline (survie, matrice) et Valentin --> <!-- ??? --> <!-- + We will be 3 teachers with you today and tomorrow. --> <!-- + Time for introductions I guess. --> <!-- --- --> <!-- ### The team - helpers --> <!-- ??? --> <!-- + We will have the help of 4 young researchers with us today and tomorrow. --> <!-- + Time for introductions I guess. --> --- ## On our plate ??? + OK, what's on our plate? -- + Estimating abundance and density of populations + Conventional methods and the detectability issue + Capture-recapture, distance sampling and N-mixture -- + Estimation of demographic parameters + Survival estimation from capture-recapture data + Using covariates to explain variation + Inference about dispersal -- + Population projection matrix models + Count-based projection models + Age- and stage-structured models + Sensitivity analyses --- ## Philosophy of teaching ??? + Before we start, a few words about our teaching philosophy. -- + Lots of attendees, with huge heterogeneity in knowledge of statistical analyses, methods in population dynamics, and `R`. ??? + You'll be several hundreds folks attending today and tomorrow, there is heterogeneity in knowledge of the methods we will cover. -- + It is our hope that everyone will find something to take home. ??? + It is our hope however that everyone will find something to take home. -- + We've packed a lot of things in two days. ??? + We'll be covering a lot of things in two days. -- + We do not expect you to digest everything. ??? + Do not feel like you have to fully understand everything at once. + Took us years to be comfortable with the material we will cover. -- + All material (including videos) on website <https://oliviergimenez.github.io/popdyn-workshop/>. ??? + To help, we have made all material available on a website. + Let's take a minute to have a look to the website. -- + Feel free to play around with material while we walk through it, and afterwards. ??? + Feel free to play around with the material we provide. -- + The workshop is organized in modules, each module is a combination of lectures and live demos. ??? + We will have lectures, and live demos. In the live demos, we will demonstrate some R code directly in R, or simply explain it in the slides. --- ## The way we will interact with each other -- + We'll be streaming lectures and live coding demos on Youtube. ??? + Lectures and live demos will happen in Youtube. -- + Everything is video recorded. ??? + Everything is video recorded. -- + The recordings will be made available on the website. -- + Questions and answers via the chat on Youtube. You need to have a YouTube account to use the chat. -- + We'll do our best to answer your questions, but with > 2500 attendees, we'll probably miss some of them. Apologies in advance.