class: center, middle, title-slide .title[ # Quantitative methods for population dynamics <br> Conclusions ] .author[ ### Olivier Gimenez, Sarah Cubaynes, Aurélien Besnard <br> Lise Viollat, Javi-Fernández-López, Thierry Chambert, Thibaut Couturier, Valentin Lauret, Marwan Naciri ] --- class: center, middle background-size: cover ## Population dynamics <img src="img/intro2.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ??? + This workshop deals with the analysis and modelling of population dynamics. + Quantifying population dynamics is crucial for the conservation and management of animal and plant species. + We hope to have given you some tools to start working on your own. --- ## What we covered (1/3) .pull-left[ <br> <br> + Abundance and density + Counting methods + Detectability issue + Capture-recapture, distance sampling and N-mixture ] .pull-right[ <img src="img/Page3.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- ## What we covered (2/3) .pull-left[ <br> <br> + Demographic parameters + Capture-recapture data + Survival + Covariates + Transitions ] .pull-right[ <img src="img/Page2.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- ## What we covered (3/3) .pull-left[ <br> <br> + Population projection models + Count-based PVA + Age- and stage-structured models + Sensitivity analyses ] .pull-right[ <img src="img/Page1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- class: middle, center ## Take-home messages and recommendations ??? + We'll wrap up the workshop with a few take-home messages + And recommendations for conducting your own analyses. --- ## The art of modelling ??? + Before we leave, we'd like to give you a few pieces of advice. + This is not rocket science. + Just a few things based on our own experience. -- + Make your ecological question explicit. ??? + First things first. Make sure you've spent some to time to make your ecological question explicit. + This step will help you to stay on course, and make the right choices. + For example, it's ok to use subsets of your data to address different questions. -- + Think of your model. ??? + Now in terms of modeling. Don't jump on your keyboard right away. + Spend some time thinking about your model with pen and paper. -- + Start simple. Make sure everything runs smoothly. ??? + When it comes to model fitting, start simple. + Consider all parameters constant. + Make sure everything runs smoothly. -- + Add complexity one step at a time. ??? + Then add complexity. Time effect for example. Or random effects. + Or uncertainty in the assignment of states. <!-- --- --> <!-- ## Simulations --> <!-- + Use simulations to better understand your model. --> <!-- + R is the perfect tool for simulations. --> <!-- + Model is an engine to generate data, instead of estimating parameters. --> <!-- ??? --> <!-- + When it comes to model building, consider simulating data to better understand your model. --> <!-- + R is the perfect tool. --> <!-- + You will always learn something on your model by seeing it an engine to generate data, instead of estimating its parameters. --> --- ## Till next time -- + Website will be updated with + video recordings + your feedbacks ??? + We will update the workshop website in the coming weeks. + With the video recordings of course. + Any feedback you might have. Please get in touch with me if you have any, that would be great. -- + Please, fill in feedback form at <https://forms.gle/Gw9qeg9a8qVgnJaZ7>. It will help us to improve materials and delivery for next time. -- + Certificate of attendance on request. -- + A book is on its way. More in 2024 hopefully. ??? + And last, a book is on its way. Based on the material we used for the workshop and more stuff. + More in 2024 hopefully.